Post by account_disabled on Mar 6, 2024 0:34:20 GMT -5
The day after the general elections, the Ibex 35 chokes. In 9 of the last 10 elections to elect president, the Spanish selective has registered falls that have even exceeded 5%, according to data compiled by the financial technology micapital. The reason is not so much the color of the winner, but the uncertainty that follows. Going back to 1993, thirty years ago, “except in very exceptional cases, electoral periods usually have a negative effect on the Ibex 35, which usually suffers both before and after an election day,” he points out in a note. The only general elections that followed a positive day were the first of 2019, won by the PSOE, since the Ibex recorded a meager increase of.
The rest, there have always been falls, whether the socialists or the popular ones win. Thus, if more falls arrive on Monday, it would be normal. The biggest drop was recorded in 1996, with -5.22%. They were the Job Function Email Database first elections won by José María Aznar. A victory for the PSOE has also been received with strong sales, with drops of 4.15% after the victory of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in 2004 or -1.75% in those won by Felipe González in 1993. “This analysis leads us to affirm that whoever wins the elections does not seem to influence the behavior of the Ibex 35, but rather it is the uncertainty derived from the elections themselves that prevails over other factors and sets the course of the markets,” analyzes Miguel Camiña.
General director of Micappital. The days before the elections, Fridays, also tend to be negative but not as much. Of course, the coincidences of the calendar meant that the Friday before the 2016 elections recorded the worst session in its history, after Brexit triumphed at the polls. “Above the political party that governs, investments are mainly affected by the medium and long-term policies that it may adopt, and there fear is free and conditions the behavior of investors,” adds Camiña.Where there is not such a clear trend is in the month following the elections, since four positive cases and another six negative cases have been registered. Thus, after winning the PP the following month, it has been positive in 2016, with an increase. But they have also been negative, such as the 8% drop after 2000. The socialists are experiencing something similar.
The rest, there have always been falls, whether the socialists or the popular ones win. Thus, if more falls arrive on Monday, it would be normal. The biggest drop was recorded in 1996, with -5.22%. They were the Job Function Email Database first elections won by José María Aznar. A victory for the PSOE has also been received with strong sales, with drops of 4.15% after the victory of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in 2004 or -1.75% in those won by Felipe González in 1993. “This analysis leads us to affirm that whoever wins the elections does not seem to influence the behavior of the Ibex 35, but rather it is the uncertainty derived from the elections themselves that prevails over other factors and sets the course of the markets,” analyzes Miguel Camiña.
General director of Micappital. The days before the elections, Fridays, also tend to be negative but not as much. Of course, the coincidences of the calendar meant that the Friday before the 2016 elections recorded the worst session in its history, after Brexit triumphed at the polls. “Above the political party that governs, investments are mainly affected by the medium and long-term policies that it may adopt, and there fear is free and conditions the behavior of investors,” adds Camiña.Where there is not such a clear trend is in the month following the elections, since four positive cases and another six negative cases have been registered. Thus, after winning the PP the following month, it has been positive in 2016, with an increase. But they have also been negative, such as the 8% drop after 2000. The socialists are experiencing something similar.